The refugee crisis in Europe that was predicted a few months ago is now a reality. This crisis, if not dealt with properly or quickly, could divide the European Union, as well as increase tensions in and between the EU member countries. This is the biggest refugee wave in Europe since the Second World War and the most complicated crisis for the European Union in the last decades.

Many people have seen the recent photo of 3-year-old Syrian boy Aylan Kurdi lying alone and dead on a beach in Turkey. His older brother and mother also lost their lives in the sea.

On the side of an Austrian motorway there was a van with dozens of suffocated refugees, including children.

Those are just two tragic examples of the catastrophe unfolding in the vicinity of Europe and now already in Europe. Nothing has been done about the causes of that catastrophe so far, even though hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and over six million people have been left homeless in the Syrian civil war.

The world, including Europe, has not yet succeeded in achieving peace, in other words putting an end to the war in Syria and stopping ISIS extremists. Peace must be more actively strived for in Syria, Iraq, Libya and many other countries near Europe, because that is the only solution to stop the migration of war refugees. Still, ending the war is in the hands of local leaders, not Brussels or Washington.

Yes, a lot more has to be done to achieve peace. Refugee camps in the Middle East must be better equipped, human traffickers must be fought, more humane and less dangerous ways to treat refugees must be found. That, however, is time-consuming and the effect is slow. But people are in peril and desperate right now and are hoping for a chance to save their children and themselves and to start a new life somewhere, a life that is not filled with violence. They also hope to possibly return to their home country in the future. That notion is supported by the fact that before the war in Syria there was a minimal number of economic refugees from there. The wave of refugees started with the war, when people began fleeing to save themselves and their children.

Time has run out

The life of young Aylan was cut short and it showed us in a cruel way that time has run out. European leaders cannot postpone their decisions and actions any longer. Every delayed day makes the situation worse. There is no clear reason why the EU ministers of internal affairs and ministers of justice are not meeting earlier than on September 14th and government leaders even later. The refugee crisis needs a fast response, because in addition to the refugees’ suffering, the pictures of people drowning in the Mediterranean Sea, of suffocated people in a van, of desperate people in the Budapest train station diminish the EU citizens’ faith in the EU’s ability to ensure the protection of human rights in Europe.

Unfortunately, fast action is not characteristic to the European Union, because the EU is not designed to deal with crises that develop quickly. The EU wishes to reach consensus between the 28 member countries and that takes time, even assuming that all the members are ready to decide and there is enough will to do something. That includes the assumption that some Eastern European countries will stop creating their refugees-are-not-our-problem coalitions and are actually ready to help the victims of this humanitarian catastrophe, instead of merely sticking to formal talk. Refusing to help war refugees hurts the human dignity of many Europeans.

The deepening of the refugee crisis is grist to the mill for nationalist and anti-EU political forces in many countries. Therefore any delay will make reaching decisions in the near future even more complicated.

Modern Europe is what it is because of the values that made Estonia wish to join the free world as quickly as possible. Human rights, law-governed state and respect for life. All of that should be the basis for future decisions both in Brussels and in Tallinn.

Many risks involved

The delay of the refugee crisis includes other risks, as well. If effective decisions cannot be made and the crisis keeps expanding, there will probably not be immediate changes in other areas, but the end will be near for free movement in the Schengen Area. It is also possible to have a formal and numb attitude towards the budget requests of poorer EU countries, free movement of work force inside the EU, and the continuous roars of Russia. Today’s indifference in actively helping to solve the refugee crisis will have serious consequences on Europe as a whole sooner rather than later. And on Estonia, as well.

If the Prime Minister of Hungary says cynically that the refugee problem concerns only Germany, it is a big step towards shattering the EU from the inside. Reasoning his statement by saying that the refugees want to go to Germany, not stay in Hungary, adds another dose of cynicism. If Hungary has done everything to officially announce that refugees are not welcome there and the attitude against people who have suffered is hostile, then why would people want to stay in a country where they are treated in a hostile way again?

The situation in Budapest’s train station, in the capital of one of the EU members, where refugees, even children, sleep on the floor for many days, is not indicative of too much helpfulness, not to mention following the convention of children’s rights.

What to do?

What should the EU leaders do? There should be a change in the Dublin Regulation which states that refugees should be handled by the member country where refugees first entered the EU. That has been a big part of the EU’s internal problem, because Greece and Italy are being crushed under the weight of the refugees. It is also clear that there is no longevity in a situation where 75% of the refugees are taken in by five EU member countries, whereas many other members try to ignore Europe’s collective problem.

The EU leaders must find an adequate solution for distributing war refugees in the EU in a humane way, so that these people would be able to start over and that the burden would not be too heavy on any country. It is clear that the decisions of the last European Council summit are not working, because the number of war refugees has increased in a matter of weeks, not to mention their inhumane treatment in some member countries.

At the same time we should not forget the numbers that we are talking about. There are 500 million people in Europe. This year 320,000 war refugees have entered Europe. That is less than 0.1% of the population of Europe. Germany has announced that they are willing to accept 800,000 war refugees, which is 1% of their population. That means that Europe is able to help war refugees, there just has to be will to do so.

Estonia and war refugees

The number of war refugees getting help in Estonia that has been discussed so far would be 0.01% of the population. They could all fit in a big articulated bus or a plane. Estonia is able to help those people and give them a new start. It would also be possible for Estonia to handle an amount of people who would fit in many buses or planes. In the upcoming meetings of the EU ministers Estonia should proceed from the possibility of finding an actual solution, from the actual need to help war refugees and Estonia’s actual capability. The current decisions made by the European Council will have to change anyway.

It should also be taken into consideration that if the EU fails to find a solution to the refugee crisis, there will be repercussions in areas that are very important to Estonia. Everything is connected and there is no longevity in selective solidarity.

Estonian politicians and other leaders should take a clear initiative to explain, discuss and decide, considering that Estonia is a country with a conscience that respects human rights. We should leave behind prejudices and fears that a small number of war refugees will lead to an apocalypse.

The biggest humanitarian crisis in Europe should be dealt with as much consensus between political parties as possible. The government should help local governments to find the best effective solutions, so that the war refugees coming to Estonia could go on with their lives as quickly as possible, start working and go to school. Estonian society is able to handle it.

Our attitude towards the war refugees coming to Estonia is also important. It is elementary that people’s motivation to blend in and find a job as quickly as possible is greater if they feel a friendly attitude towards them. A hostile reception will cause something else entirely. It is completely human.

We should also try to draw a line between those who are understandably worried about our uncertain future and those who knowingly give heated hate speeches.

Hate speeches, as well as public and hidden intolerance could poison Estonian society for a long period. It is especially bad when hate speeches are made by political forces. In that case they are political criminals, plain and simple. The penal code should be amended to not allow hate speeches and threats.

I am convinced that once the true picture becomes more clear and prejudices are shattered, the majority of Estonian society will be ready. Also, the European Union will stick together even in difficult situations and Estonia will help with war refugees as much as possible by giving them a chance to start a new life, with no fear of violence. Just like many other societies treated our tens of thousands of compatriots who fled Estonia fearing violence in the last century.

Little Aylan’s and his older brother Galip’s lives were cut short. Their father buried his sons and his wife in Syria. The country they had fled to escape from war. We in Estonia are able to help, so there would be less lives cut short. Without compassion, we are worth nothing.

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Unfortunately it almost always takes a terrible tragedy for a problem that has existed for a while and is constantly growing, to be taken seriously. That was the case with many Western countries’ stance towards Russia’s agression in Ukraine, where the real breakthrough came when the Malaysian aircraft was shot down and over a hundred citizens of Western countries were killed. The same is happening with the increasing amount of refugees headed towards Europe. The fact that the number of refugees who came to Europe tripled from 2013 and reached 278,000, was clearly not serious enough to look for proper solutions. Unfortunately it took another big specific catastrophe, the drowning of 700 people in the Mediterranean Sea, which forced the leaders and ministers of the EU countries to discuss the situation. Almost 2,000 refugees have drowned in the Mediterranean during the four months of this year already.

Of course, it is a difficult issue and there are no good solutions which would have quick results. That is also the reason why the EU as a whole and the majority of the EU countries further away from the Mediterranean Sea have tried to ignore the problem. That has increased the frustration, justified criticism and questions about the EU’s selective solidarity of the Southern European countries faced with the rapidly growing wave of refugees. To make the proportions clearer, let it be said that of the 278,000 illegals who crossed the EU border last year, 1,077 crossed the Eastern border and the rest the Southern border.

The main reason for the rapidly growing and consistently increasing number of refugees are the wars, conflicts and violence which have developed or intensified over the past years near Europe. The civil war in Syria, the ISIS killings in Iraq and Syria, violence in Yemen, Libya, Sudan and South Sudan, Somalia, the Central African Republic, Nigeria and many other countries. Now, once again in Europe, in Ukraine. Millions of people who have left or are leaving those countries, are not looking for a better standard of life. Those people flee to save the lives of their children and themselves.

Of course it is true that in order to put an end to the refugee problem the focus should be on stopping wars and violence, because these are the main reasons for fleeing. The reality is that none of those conflicts have been stopped, however, more conflicts have arisen. The European Union has not been able to stop the violence in its close proximity in the past years. It is easy to say that the answer to the refugee problem is in the solution of the root of the problem, i.e. the conflicts, but unfortunately it has been all talk and not much else so far, because there are no concrete results. However, people are still fleeing right now, next week and next month, as well.

Another proposed idea is to fight the criminals who make money off of desperate people by putting them on rickety boats and sending towards Europe. Crime certainly has to be fought, but how will that help the people who are trying to escape war to save their lives? Should we burn the boats and ships on the North coast of Libya, so people cannot leave? The people who manage to escape one conflict would be in the middle of the Libyan civil war. Are there any other alternatives? None have been expressed.

Imagine if in 1944 Sweden had seriously discussed burning the boats on the coast of Estonia to prevent people from fleeing. It is unthinkable.

How to help these desperate refugees so that they would survive and be able to return to their homeland, when the situation there will become easier or the conflict will end? The first emergency option is the construction of new refugee camps in the nearest safe area. Not just new refugee camps, but ones with actual adequate supplies, schools for children etc. Syrian refugee camps are a poor example, because in the estimation of the UN there is no guarantee of food and other necessities in 85% of them. That is also the reason why people leave those camps and try to find their way to Europe. In order to reduce the flow of refugees towards Europe as quickly as possible, it is necessary to construct refugee camps in the nearest safe area and ensure all the necessities. Yes, it is expensive, but still cheaper than the other options and emotionally easier than getting reports of hundreds more people who have drowned in the Mediterranean Sea.

In order to prevent refugees from drowning in the Mediterranean Sea and to value all human life, it is necessary to rapidly multiply the border and rescue patrols on the Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. It should not only concern Italy, Greece and other Southern European countries. The EU border agency Frontex must be developed into a functioning structure with a significant and steady financing from the EU budget. Also, other EU countries should contribute significantly more than they have so far.

The next question concerns refugees who arrive to Europe. In the last year their number has tripled and is still growing. The burden on Malta, which is smaller than Estonia, is huge, and it is also significant on Italy and Greece. Understandably those countries want the help of other EU countries to deal with the situation. Indifference and political statements without action only increase their frustration. The reality is that in the near future there will not be a mandatory quota system to divide refugees among EU countries evenly. A number of people who have been granted asylum move on their own from Italy and Malta to France, Germany, Sweden or elsewhere, but a significant amount of them stay where they are. Naturally the countries which are under the most pressure would like to feel real solidarity from the EU instead of political slogans. This is where the other countries’ volunteer help and willingness to accept refugees could be of great assistance. It has been done to some extent, for example, France has helped tiny Malta.

Estonia also needs to discuss, in light of Europe’s refugee problem, what is our understanding of European solidarity. Naturally, all of Europe should share our concerns about Russia’s agression and be there to support us. But to what extent do we share the concerns of other European countries in regards to refugees and are we ready to support them? Are we ready to support them in a way that is perceived as support by the countries whom we are seemingly helping?

Here’s a little mental exercise – the dominant attitude in Estonia has so far been not to help other European countries when it comes to alleviating refugee pressure. Yes, we have given some money and sent experts now and then. But let’s imagine that there will be turbulent times across our border and tens of thousands of people in distress will arrive. I think we would expect other European countries to express practical solidarity in dealing with the refugees, not for them to look up to the furthest corner of the ceiling and mumble that we should deal with it ourselves. It should be mentioned that Malta is smaller than Estonia.

Tens of thousands of our compatriots fled in the 20th century in fear of repressions and violence and found a new home somewhere else, from Sweden and Germany all the way to Australia, the USA and Canada. We are still very grateful to those countries.

Estonia did not grant temporary protection or asylum to any of the 55 people who fled Ukraine. The attitude has changed somewhat this year. The refugee problem still concerns the whole Europe and perhaps we should consider an emphatic gesture towards Southern European countries, for example letting refugee children who have lost everyone, to go on with their lives, and to allow them to do that in Estonia.

The refugee problem will not just disappear. It has dangerous potential to become Europe’s biggest problem. European values, human rights and the sanctity of human life are already on a collision course with European exhaustion with the refugees, the rise of intolerance and arrogance, illustrated by the idea to burn boats. This creates confusion, perplexity and pessimism in European societies.

A growing practical concern is attacks against free movement within Europe, i.e. the Schengen system. Italy has threatened to start sending refugees elsewhere in Europe and France has warned that they might restore border control. But if you add terrorists, illegal migrant workers and other issues, there are already plenty of arguments against the sustainability of Schengen. The end of Schengen would be a serious blow to European freedoms, not to mention the idea and the practical unique value of a unified Europe.

In addition, the refugee topic in its simplified like-dislike treatment only adds fuel to the fire in regards to the different populistic and extreme political powers opposing foreigners and a unified Europe. This phenomenon has now reached Estonia. But we are rather unanimous that a strong and unified EU is vital to us, considering again, among other things, our geographical position. Extreme political powers opposing a unified Europe grow increasingly stronger, leaving countries such as ours more and more isolated. It is obvious which country with its capital in Moscow is happy about that.

In conclusion, what are the actual possibilities of the EU to alleviate refugee pressure without creating a serious conflict with the quintessential and humanistic core values of Europe?

1. It is necessary to contribute diplomatically as much as possible to reach agreements in order to reduce wars and conflicts in the vicinity of Europe and of course in Europe, in Ukraine. The end of the Syrian civil war and forcing ISIS out would already help to decrease the amount of refugees considerably.

2. Adequately equipped refugee camps in safe areas near conflict regions. That requires agreements with countries where those camps could be built, as well as systematic supplies. In addition, existing refugee camps should receive significant improvements, so people would feel less motivated to leave them and head to Europe.

3. Trying to achieve a more stable situation in Libya which would make it possible for people to wait for conflict resolution in sufficiently equipped refugee camps, instead of risking their lives on the Mediterranean Sea. However, achieving stability in Libya is a very difficult task.

4. Rapidly and significantly strengthening the EU border agency Frontex and increasing the EU members’ contribution to the patrols and rescue abilities of the Mediterranean Sea.

5. Achieving voluntary (currently the only realistic option) solution for the relocation of refugees from countries which are under the most pressure. Help can be found in a EU-central monetary support mechanism. That could alleviate the pressure on dismantling Schengen.

6. Significantly tighter collaboration and support to Turkey in dealing with refugees. The goal should be to find a solution for refugees in Turkey as a collaboration between the EU and Turkey.

In conclusion, human rights organisations would like for Europe to grant asylum to all refugees, without having to risk their lives trying to cross the EU border illegally and seek asylum. It is very humane, but does not take into account the reality in Europe and the world in general. A sufficient explanation would be to add up the populations of countries involved in wars or conflicts and to assume that the majority of people would like to leave the war zone. That number is very large, even for Europe. Therefore, we should try to reduce the amount of evil in the world, but even now there is an unknown amount of desperate people fleeing towards Europe in order to survive. Many of them will reach their destination and will have to be helped immediately.

Urmas Paet
Member of the European Parliament
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia 2005-2014

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